Top Takeaways

Trade Tensions Rise: EU and China React to US Tariffs, TSMC Expands in America

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  • The EU imposed a 50% tariff on American alcohol in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs, prompting the US administration to consider a 200% tariff on EU wines and spirits unless the EU reverses its measure.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has announced a $100 billion investment to build five new semiconductor fabrication plants in the United States.
  • China responded to US tariff hikes by imposing 10-15% tariffs on US agricultural imports and restricting 25 US firms, including 10 linked to Taiwan arms sales.

Regions

North America

Air

  • The recent US tariffs on major trading partners, including Canada and Mexico, have created widespread uncertainty in global supply chains. This unpredictability hampers strategic planning for businesses across various industries. Companies are considering relocating their supply chains away from countries heavily affected by US tariffs; however, many are postponing decisions until more definitive information is available.
  • Westbound trans-Atlantic air freight demand has surged as tariffs are set to take effect on April 2. Shippers are frontloading shipments to avoid the tariffs, driving an 11% year-over-year increase in cargo volumes from Western Europe to the US in early March. Air freight rates have risen 8% to nearly $5 per kilogram, levels last seen before Lunar New Year. The situation is further complicated by reduced freighter capacity on the trans-Atlantic lane, as some carriers have shifted aircraft to the Asia-Pacific region to meet rising eCommerce demand. However, relief is expected with the launch of summer airline schedules on April 1, which will add belly cargo capacity to trans-Atlantic routes.

Ocean

  • The Port of Savannah is using Ocean Terminal as a lay berth to stage ships before docking at Garden City Terminal, reducing idle time between calls from 12 to 3 hours and adding capacity for two more post-Panamax vessels weekly. While the berth helped ease delays after severe winter weather in 2025, its primary goal is long-term efficiency. A second lay berth will open by mid-2026, and by 2027, Ocean Terminal will begin converting into a dedicated container terminal handling up to 1.5 million TEUs annually.
  • US retailers have lowered April–July import forecasts due to tariff uncertainty and high inventory levels from prior frontloading, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report. While March projections remain unchanged, revised forecasts predict a 13.9% year-over-year decline in July. The doubling of US tariffs on Chinese goods to 20% has heightened concerns, with retailers adjusting supply chain strategies in response. Additionally, analysts warn that possible new fees on Chinese vessels docking at US ports could further drive up costs.
  • The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) is investigating global chokepoints, including the Panama and Suez Canals, amid growing concerns over foreign policies affecting US shipping. While a routine probe, it aligns with the Trump administration’s push for maritime dominance, including potential restrictions on Panama-flagged vessels and $1 million fees on Chinese-built ships, with a hearing set for March 24. Trump also plans to create an office of commercial and military shipbuilding to boost US ship production.
Latin America

Air

  • A new air cargo route has launched between Xiamen, China and São Paulo, Brazil operated by Ethiopian Cargo. The service runs three times weekly with 95 tons of cargo capacity per flight. The route aims to boost trade between China and the South American hub while reducing transit times for international deliveries.
  • Latin America saw an 11.2% year-over-year increase in air cargo demand in January, significantly outpacing global growth of 3.2%. Regional cargo capacity also rose 10.6%, exceeding the global increase of 6.8%. This made Latin America the fastest-growing region for cargo demand worldwide.

Ocean

  • The volume of maritime cargo between Chancay and Shanghai already exceeds 20 thousand tons. The route currently has regular trips twice a week and is increasing the flow of cargo from Latin America to Asia, with faster and more economical transport.
  • The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO) has criticized CK Hutchison's plan to sell approximately 80% of its port holdings, including operations at both ends of the Panama Canal, to a consortium led by Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) and BlackRock. The HKMAO expressed concerns that this transaction could undermine China's national interests. This development has become a focal point amid the new US administration's heightened attention to the strategic significance of the Panama Canal.
Asia-Pacific

Air

  • In January, Asia-Pacific airlines experienced a 4.7% year-over-year increase in international air cargo demand, driven by higher consumer goods demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Freight capacity rose by 10.9% during the same period.

Ocean

  • Shipping companies are relocating operations and removing vessels from Hong Kong’s registry due to US-China conflict concerns, with over 90 vessels recently re-flagging to Singapore and the Marshall Islands. Despite Hong Kong’s role in global shipping, its maritime registry experienced an 8% decline in ocean-going ships from 2021 to 2025 as companies aim to lessen geopolitical risks from Chinese control and US sanctions.
  • China has imposed additional tariffs of 10% to 15% on US agricultural and food imports in response to the latest US tariff increases. An additional 15% tariff now applies to US chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, while an added 10% levy targets soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. Additionally, China has placed 25 US firms under export and investment restrictions, including 10 companies involved in arms sales to Taiwan.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has announced a $100 billion investment to build five new semiconductor fabrication plants in the United States. The initiative aims to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing and enhance supply chain resilience. This investment follows TSMC's previous $65 billion commitment to US manufacturing and aligns with the $6.6 billion subsidy received under the CHIPS and Science Act.
  • The container shipping industry is facing a prolonged downturn due to overcapacity and weak demand, with freight rates projected to drop 30% in 2025. Analysts warn of continued financial pressure as new vessel deliveries outpace market demand. In addition to economic challenges, geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are creating further uncertainty in global shipping markets.
  • Trans-Pacific carriers are reducing 2025–26 contract rates due to falling spot rates and economic uncertainty. Initially targeting $2,000 per FEU to the West Coast and $3,000 per FEU to the East Coast, they are now quoting lower rates, expecting further declines. Additionally, changing US tariff policies are creating uncertainty for importers, complicating long-term supply chain planning.
Europe

Air

  • European carriers are adjusting their seasonal networks to support growing eCommerce demand from the APAC region. Air France-KLM is reallocating capacity from Latin America to Asia to meet rising demand, while Lufthansa has expanded freighter schedules with newly delivered aircraft to enhance cargo operations.

Ocean

  • French ports were disrupted by labor strikes throughout early March 2025, with four-hour walkouts planned on multiple dates and a major 72-hour strike initially set for March 18 to 20. However, following negotiations, the union suspended the strike movement, meaning the walkouts planned for March 24, 26, and 28 may no longer take place.
  • In mid-March 2025, spot rates on the Shanghai-Rotterdam and Shanghai-Genoa routes declined by 5% and 11% week-on-week, respectively, as rising capacity outpaced demand growth. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reflected these trends, with rates from China to North Europe decreasing by 15% and to the Mediterranean by 8%. Industry analysts note that utilization on Asia-Europe routes dropped earlier than usual in 2025, contributing to the rapid fall in spot rates.
India, the Middle East and Africa

Air

  • Astral Aviation has successfully completed a humanitarian aid flight to Gaza, delivering over 32 tons of essential supplies, including food and medical materials. The mission, conducted in collaboration with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), transported the aid from Ras Al Khaimah Airport to El Arish International Airport. The UAE has been a significant contributor to relief efforts in Gaza, with over 60,000 tons of aid delivered to date.
  • The African air cargo sector is experiencing steady growth, driven by a rapidly expanding middle-class population and the rise of eCommerce. The market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.46% from 2025 to 2029, reaching an estimated value of $56.03 billion by 2029. Africa's strategic geographic position enhances its role in global air cargo trade. Notably, Kenya accounts for approximately 40% of all cut flowers sold in Europe. Additionally, countries like Ethiopia, South Africa and Kenya lead in exporting perishable commodities, including fresh fruits, vegetables and seafood, to various global destinations.
  • AeroNet has signed a three-year agreement with Qatar Airways Cargo to provide air cargo net repair services until May 31, 2027. The repairs will be conducted at AeroNet’s EASA-certified Part 145 repair stations as part of the contract. This partnership follows an existing collaboration in which AeroNet supplied air cargo nets, tie-down straps, and equipment to Qatar Airways Cargo.

Ocean

  • Dubai-based DP World and Saudi ports Mawani has announced the inauguration of South container Terminal at Jeddah Islamic port in Saudi Arabia. The terminal expansion project is set to cost around USD 800 million (SAR 3 billion) and will increase its capacity from 1.8 million TEUs to 4 million TEUs which will improve the terminal’s efficiency. This will further reduce the transaction times from two minutes to 10 seconds respectively thereby improving operations and enhance overall container flow.
  • The Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) Group has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Egypt's Holding Company for Maritime and Land Transport to enhance the country's transportation and logistics infrastructure. This agreement focuses on improving seaports, dry ports, railway freight facilities and logistics zones to boost operational efficiency. The partnership aligns with Egypt’s Vision 2030 initiative, reinforcing its role as a regional logistics hub and supporting efforts to attract foreign investments.
  • India’s port industry will experience a growth of 4-7% from 2025 to 2029 according to a report by Motilal Oswal with container traffic expected to to increase with a stable rate of 3-6% respectively. Indian ports are looking to increase capacity by handling commodities including petroleum, oil, lubricants, coal and other container cargo. The rising growth signifies India’s position as a strong regional player with advanced capabilities.

Ground

  • J&T Express is expanding its presence in the Middle East's logistics market by establishing new warehouses in strategic locations, including the Dubai Airport Freezone and Dubai South. These developments aim to enhance the company's market presence and serve customers more efficiently. Additionally, J&T Express has launched J&T Speed in Saudi Arabia, a new last-mile delivery service designed to provide faster shipping solutions to customers.
  • Kolkata saw a 28% year-over-year increase in warehouse leasing in 2024, rising from 5.1 to 6.5 million square feet, driven by demand from 3PL providers like Mahindra Logistics and Safexpress, as well as major eCommerce companies. The city led eCommerce transactions in India, capturing 29% of the market share. Leasing activity surged in Dankuni and NH 16, with 3PL and eCommerce sectors expanding rapidly to support growing consumer demand and last-mile delivery.
Customs Brokerage
  • Canada has imposed tariffs on nearly C$30 billion worth of US imports in response to US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. Effective March 13, Canada applied 25% tariffs on C$12.6 billion in steel, C$3 billion in aluminum, and C$14.2 billion in other goods, including tools, computers and sports equipment. These tariffs apply only to US-origin goods and will remain until the US removes its tariffs. Canada warns of potential additional tariffs by April 2 if the US does not address its trade measures, with further actions under consideration.
  • In response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum, the EU announced a two-phase retaliatory plan, reinstating tariffs on €4.5 billion of US imports starting April 1 and imposing additional tariffs on €18 billion worth of goods by mid-April. The targeted products include industrial and agricultural goods, with final decisions based on stakeholder consultations. While the EU remains open to negotiations, other major trading partners have not announced similar countermeasures, though China has hinted at potential action.
  • In retaliation to the US imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, the European Union announced a 50% tariff on American alcohol imports. In response, President Trump stated on Truth Social that the US would implement a 200% tariff on EU wines, spirits and other alcoholic beverages unless the EU removed its tariff immediately. He claimed this measure would benefit US wine and champagne businesses.
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This document is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice. Information herein was obtained from government, industry, and other public sources. It has not been independently verified by UPS and is subject to change. Recipient has sole responsibility for determining the usability of any information provided herein. Before recipient acts on the information, recipient should seek professional advice regarding its applicability to the recipient's specific circumstances.

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