After the last couple years of unprecedented markets with high demand, high rates and low-to-no capacity, the market has plateaued. Demand has softened, and more capacity is being introduced into the market weekly, so does that mean we’ll experience a peak season this year? Many freight and logistics professionals have eluded that there will be no peak season this year, but with blank sailings on the rise, your business still needs to be prepared. This article will walk through the three essential things your business should do to make sure you’re prepared for a peak season, even in a softer market.
How to Prepare for Peak Season in a Soft Market
Even though the market may have plateaued, learn how your business can prepare for this year's challenges.
Planning Your Shipments Ahead of the Holidays
As you plan out your air and ocean shipments ahead of the holidays, here are some general guidelines to help you determine what mode you may need with upcoming timing limitations.*
- September 1 - September 25: Ocean Freight
Asia to US East Coast generally takes 28-31 days of sailing time, while Asia to US West Coast us is 10-18 days.
Ocean bookings should be confirmed at least two weeks prior to sailing date, however, with the uncertainty of blank sailings in the market, four weeks advanced bookings may be required in some cases. - September 25 - November 20: International Air Freight
In the last two weeks leading up to China Mainland Golden week, you will most likely need to divert shipments to air to avoid the delay caused by the holiday. -
October 1 - 7
China Mainland Golden Week - limited manpower on duty.
-
November 20 - December 6: North American Air Freight
Delivery time commitments for all eligible UPS® North American Air Freight shipments picked up between November 20, 2023 – December 6, 2023 will be changed to be delivered by the end of day for the service selected.
What Is Peak Season? When Is It?
Peak season can be defined as a period of time, normally leading up to the winter holidays, where companies are stocking up on their products before the surge of shopping. With most companies shipping their product, capacity can become limited, causing rates to rise with the increased demand. In addition, Golden Week, which takes place between October 1-7, 2023, is a week-long holiday in China Mainland where most companies, including factories, take off to celebrate.
- Should I expect a peak season this year?
The short answer is no (but with a caveat). After the past three years of limited capacity and high demand and rates, the market has plateaued. A lot of companies already have an excess of product, causing them to order less product than normal in preparation for the holidays.
However, even though the market is softer this year, your business should still prepare for the coming months. Blank sailings have been on the rise, causing last-minute demand for ocean space to rise along with rates, leading to an artificial peak. While there is a lot of new capacity entering the ocean market with the introduction of new container ships, blank sailings have been increasing at the same time, causing the new addition of capacity to not even meet the current demand for space.
If your business is planning on moving your shipments by ocean, we recommend you book your shipments at least four weeks prior to Golden Week , which means your business should start booking your ocean shipments now.
How Should I Prepare for Peak Season?
Our shipping and logistics professionals have put together three things your business can do now, to help you stay prepared for the upcoming months leading into the winter holidays.
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*This document is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice. Information herein was obtained from government, industry, and other public sources. It has not been independently verified by UPS and is subject to change. Recipient has sole responsibility for determining the usability of any information provided herein. Before recipient acts on the information, recipient should seek professional advice regarding its applicability to the recipient's specific circumstances.
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